🔬 ELTY — Deep Research
Bakrieland Development Tbk.
📅 6 Juni 2026 | Harga: Rp 25 (-44.4% dari peak Apr) | Sektor: Properti & Real Estat
1. Executive Summary
ELTY (Bakrieland Development) dalam fase markdown/distribusi lanjutan setelah rally panik dari Rp 9 (52W low) ke Rp 108 (52W high) di awal 2026. Harga kini merosot tajam ke Rp 25, kehilangan -76.9% dari peak. Dalam 30 hari terakhir, SMART MONEY (ASING+PEM) net sell -81,897 lot sementara RITEL net buy +101,238 lot — pola klasik distribusi dari tangan kuat ke tangan lemah. Namun, di hari terakhir (5 Jun), terjadi 6 broker FLIP dari SELLER→BUYER termasuk MG (Semesta Indovest), OD (BRI Danareksa), dan XL (Stockbit) — sinyal reversal potensial tapi belum terkonfirmasi. Fundamental membaik: pendapatan +16%, rugi bersih menyusut 58.7% pada 2025. Catalyst utama: Right Issue JGLE (anak usaha) Rp 414 miliar untuk akuisisi Jungleland Asia.
2. Price Action Analysis
52W Range: Rp 9 — Rp 108 Current: Rp 25 (30.6% dari 52W low, -76.9% dari 52W high) Market Cap: ~Rp 1.74T
Tren Harga 20 Hari Terakhir
| Tanggal | Close | Volume | Net Foreign | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun | 25 | 2,851,517 | +161.3M | -7.4% |
| 4 Jun | 27 | 585,968 | +161.8M | -6.9% |
| 3 Jun | 29 | 877,752 | 0 | -9.4% |
| 2 Jun | 32 | 684,710 | 0 | 0% |
| 29 Mei | 32 | 819,879 | +10.0M | 0% |
| 26 Mei | 32 | 1,310,218 | -123.9M | -5.9% |
| 25 Mei | 34 | 1,494,453 | +72.9M | +6.3% |
| 22 Mei | 32 | 2,169,857 | +128.7M | 0% |
| 21 Mei | 32 | 1,365,474 | +164.3M | 0% |
| 20 Mei | 35 | 1,589,344 | +167.9M | -5.4% |
| 19 Mei | 37 | 1,016,525 | 0 | -2.6% |
| 18 Mei | 38 | 1,821,367 | 0 | -2.6% |
| 13 Mei | 39 | 825,722 | +7.8M | 0% |
| 12 Mei | 39 | 688,828 | 0 | -2.5% |
| 11 Mei | 40 | 960,304 | 0 | +2.6% |
| 8 Mei | 39 | 1,452,117 | -51.4M | -2.5% |
| 7 Mei | 40 | 1,069,063 | +20.0M | 0% |
| 6 Mei | 40 | 1,120,952 | -2.1M | -2.4% |
| 5 Mei | 41 | 887,244 | -95.5M | -2.4% |
| 4 Mei | 42 | 935,509 | +22.0M | -2.3% |
VPA Interpretation:
- Trend: Downtrend konsisten dari Rp 42 (4 Mei) → Rp 25 (5 Jun) = -40.5% dalam 1 bulan
- Volume: Volume spike besar di 23-24 Apr (5.98M dan 3.62M) saat harga bounce 43→47→50→44, tapi gagal hold. Volume spike = distribusi, bukan akumulasi.
- Lower Low: 3+ minggu lower low konsisten = distribusi lanjutan
- 5 Jun anomaly: Volume 2.85M (spike besar) + harga turun ke 25 = kapitulasi atau forced selling
- Net Foreign: Campuran — ada hari net buy besar (+164M di 21 Mei) tapi juga net sell besar (-124M di 26 Mei). Foreign belum konsisten akumulasi.
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
3. Foreign Flow Detail (30 Hari)
| Tanggal | Harga | Asing Buy | Asing Sell | Net Foreign (lot) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun | 25 | 528,476 | 448,645 | +79,831 |
| 4 Jun | 27 | 267,394 | 18,000 | +249,394 |
| 3 Jun | 29 | 160,974 | 95,967 | +65,007 |
| 2 Jun | 32 | 32,983 | 108,775 | -75,792 |
| 29 Mei | 32 | 72,381 | 42,559 | +29,822 |
| 26 Mei | 32 | 159,759 | 461,386 | -301,627 |
| 25 Mei | 34 | 132,181 | 489,052 | -356,871 |
| 22 Mei | 32 | 273,274 | 347,209 | -73,935 |
| 21 Mei | 32 | 768,054 | 27,285 | +740,769 |
| 20 Mei | 35 | 348,164 | 94,161 | +254,003 |
| 19 Mei | 37 | 109,966 | 430,561 | -320,595 |
| 18 Mei | 38 | 129,550 | 289,639 | -160,089 |
| 13 Mei | 39 | 229,194 | 80,759 | +148,435 |
| 12 Mei | 39 | 118,434 | 180,755 | -62,321 |
| 11 Mei | 40 | 65,452 | 219,614 | -154,162 |
Insight: Foreign flow tidak konsisten — bolak-balik net buy/sell. 3 hari terakhir (3-5 Jun) foreign net buy berturut-turut (+65K, +249K, +80K), tapi sebelumnya banyak net sell besar (-357K di 25 Mei, -302K di 26 Mei). Belum ada akumulasi foreign yang conviction-level.
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
4. Posisi Barang (30 Hari)
| Kategori | Broker Count | Total Buy | Total Sell | Net Position | Avg Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RITEL | 4 | 6,725,236 | 6,623,998 | +101,238 | Rp 3,408 |
| LOKAL | 34 | 8,406,364 | 8,425,705 | -19,341 | Rp 3,261 |
| SMART_MONEY | 19 | 3,930,318 | 4,012,215 | -81,897 | Rp 3,165 |
Interpretasi:
- ● RITEL net buy + SMART MONEY net sell = pola distribusi klasik
- RITEL menampung barang yang dilepas oleh ASING+PEMERINTAH
- LOKAL hampir netral (-19K) = netral/tidak conviction
- Avg buy price semua kategori di range Rp 3,165-3,408 = SEMUA UNDERWATER pada harga Rp 25 (lot-adjusted, ini kemungkinan split-adjusted atau ada kesalahan denominasi)
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
5. Weekly Category Flow (60 Hari)
| Minggu | SM | RITEL | LOKAL | Interpretasi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jun | +667,231 | -203,012 | -464,219 | ✅ SM akumulasi besar! |
| 25 Mei | -511,294 | +838,345 | -327,051 | ● SM distribusi → RITEL |
| 18 Mei | -156,294 | -585,505 | +741,799 | SM+RITEL jual, LOKAL tampung |
| 11 Mei | -81,540 | +51,410 | +30,130 | Netral |
| 4 Mei | -62,887 | +446,356 | -383,469 | RITEL beli besar |
| 27 Apr | +353,917 | +299,394 | -653,311 | SM+RITEL beli, LOKAL jual |
| 20 Apr | +1,280,564 | +2,633,608 | -3,914,172 | 🔥 Rally peak — SM+RITEL beli |
| 13 Apr | +824,993 | +1,526,430 | -2,351,423 | Rally lanjutan |
| 6 Apr | +394,200 | -103,351 | -290,849 | SM akumulasi awal |
Fase Detection:
- Apr 13-20: MARKUP — SM + RITEL beli besar, LOKAL jual. Rally dari ~42 ke 50.
- Apr 27 - Mei 4: TRANSITION — SM mulai lepas, RITEL masih beli (FOMO)
- Mei 11-25: DISTRIBUSI — SM net sell konsisten, RITEL menampung
- 1 Jun: REVERSAL? — SM tiba-tiba net buy +667K! Tapi perlu konfirmasi 1-2 minggu lagi.
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
6. SID
| Periode | Jumlah SID | Perubahan | Catatan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | 72,852 | (-2,161) | ● Retail kabur |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 75,013 | (-518) | ● Turun dikit |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 75,531 | (-2,629) | ● Gugur |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 78,160 | (-7,176) | ● Turun lumayan |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 85,336 | (+46,482) | ●● FOMO MASIF |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 38,854 | (+6,365) | ● Naik |
Tren SID: ELTY naik gila dari 38K ke 85K di Jan 2026 — itu +46,482 investor dalam sebulan! Tapi sejak Feb turun terus sampai 72,852 sekarang (-15% dari puncak). Pola klasik pump & dump retail: FOMO masuk saat harga naik, terus perlahan kabur pas koreksi. Yang masih bertahan 72,852 investor sekarang mayoritas nyangkut.
7. Berita & Konteks Fundamental
6 broker FLIP dari SELLER → BUYER di 5 Juni:
| Broker | Nama | Net 5 Jun | Net Sebelumnya | Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MG | Semesta Indovest | +33,026,383 | -167,968 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
| XL | Stockbit | +8,475,163 | -204,620 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
| OD | BRI Danareksa | +5,948,893 | -581,132 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
| YP | Mirae Asset | +662,203 | -429,768 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
| YB | Yakin Bertumbuh | +277,633 | -574,328 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
| IU | Indo Capital | +148,483 | -82,737 | 🔥 SELLER→BUYER |
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTE: Angka net 5 Jun untuk MG (+33M lot) dan XL (+8.4M lot) terlihat anomali/terlalu besar dibanding rata-rata harian. Kemungkinan ada crossing/block trade atau corporate action (right issue?) yang menyebabkan volume spike. Perlu verifikasi dari data transaksi aktual.
Interpretasi:
- OD (BRI Danareksa) flip ke buyer = sinyal pemerintah/institusi masuk
- MG (Semesta Indovest) flip besar = kemungkinan bandar/investor strategis
- 6 broker flip sekaligus = unusual activity, bukan normal trading
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
8. Tektokan Detection (Hari Terakhir — 5 Jun)
Clean Buyers (Smart Money legit):
| Broker | Tipe | Buy | Sell | Net | Buy% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YB | LOKAL | 104,305 | 1,000 | +103,305 | 99.1% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
| YU | ASING | 64,519 | 580 | +63,939 | 99.1% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
| LG | LOKAL | 40,245 | 649 | +39,596 | 98.4% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
| NI | PEM | 18,692 | 1,148 | +17,544 | 94.2% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
| BQ | ASING | 11,017 | 0 | +11,017 | 100% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
| DR | ASING | 11,751 | 1,000 | +10,751 | 92.2% | ✅ CLEAN BUYER |
Tektokan (noise):
- MG: 43.0% tektok → MIXED (bukan tektok murni tapi bukan clean juga)
- IU: 35.9% tektok → MIXED
Clean Sellers (distribusi legit):
| Broker | Tipe | Buy | Sell | Net | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FZ | LOKAL | 0 | 115,000 | -115,000 | ❌ CLEAN SELLER |
| GR | LOKAL | 12,260 | 172,999 | -160,739 | ❌ CLEAN SELLER |
| AZ | LOKAL | 1,490 | 53,850 | -52,360 | ❌ CLEAN SELLER |
| AT | LOKAL | 2 | 19,768 | -19,766 | ❌ CLEAN SELLER |
| HD | ASING | 0 | 32,000 | -32,000 | ❌ CLEAN SELLER |
Net setelah filter tektokan:
- Total net all brokers = 0 lot (buy = sell = 2,851,517)
- Setelah buang MG tektokan: real net dari clean buyers = +146K lot bersih
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
9. Broker Detail 30 Hari — Top Net Buyers
| # | Code | Nama | Tipe | Buy | Sell | Net | Avg Buy | Days | Buy% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MG | Semesta Indovest | LOKAL | 6,213,725 | 4,961,373 | +1,252,352 | 34 | 15 | 55.6% |
| 2 | YU | CGS International | ASING | 283,696 | 10,691 | +273,005 | 32 | 9 | 96.4% |
| 3 | XL | Stockbit | RITEL | 5,020,280 | 4,778,898 | +241,382 | 34 | 15 | 51.2% |
| 4 | LG | Trimegah | LOKAL | 196,061 | 9,771 | +186,290 | 33 | 15 | 95.3% |
| 5 | OD | BRI Danareksa | PEM | 473,590 | 305,273 | +168,317 | 34 | 15 | 60.8% |
| 6 | NI | BNI Sekuritas | PEM | 290,768 | 152,000 | +138,768 | 34 | 15 | 65.7% |
| 7 | EP | MNC Sekuritas | LOKAL | 157,389 | 31,752 | +125,637 | 34 | 15 | 83.2% |
| 8 | YB | Yakin Bertumbuh | LOKAL | 345,703 | 234,613 | +111,090 | 34 | 15 | 59.6% |
| 9 | YP | Mirae Asset | RITEL | 917,145 | 842,237 | +74,908 | 34 | 15 | 52.1% |
| 10 | HD | KGI | ASING | 111,664 | 52,240 | +59,424 | 36 | 7 | 68.1% |
Top Net Sellers (30 Hari)
| # | Code | Nama | Tipe | Buy | Sell | Net | Buy% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RO | Pluang Maju | LOKAL | 6,998 | 681,030 | -674,032 | 1.0% |
| 2 | CC | Mandiri Sekuritas | PEM | 686,869 | 1,061,560 | -374,691 | 39.3% |
| 3 | YJ | Lotus Andalan | LOKAL | 131,010 | 500,619 | -369,609 | 20.7% |
| 4 | SQ | BCA Sekuritas | LOKAL | 595,094 | 869,777 | -274,683 | 40.6% |
| 5 | PD | Indo Premier | RITEL | 387,642 | 618,964 | -231,322 | 38.5% |
Smart Money Detection:
- 🔥 YU (CGS International, ASING): 96.4% buy_pct, net +273K = clean buyer terkuat
- 🔥 LG (Trimegah, LOKAL): 95.3% buy_pct, net +186K = clean buyer
- 🔥 EP (MNC, LOKAL): 83.2% buy_pct, net +126K = clean buyer
- ⚠️ MG (Semesta Indovest, LOKAL): Net +1.25M tapi cuma 55.6% buy_pct = tektokan tinggi, bukan clean accumulator
- ❌ RO (Pluang Maju, LOKAL): 1.0% buy_pct, net -674K = distributor utama
- ❌ CC (Mandiri, PEM): Net -375K = pemerintah jual besar
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
10. Broker Detail 6 Bulan — Top Net Buyers
| # | Code | Nama | Tipe | Buy 6M | Sell 6M | Net 6M | Avg Buy | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XL | Stockbit | RITEL | 77,463,689 | 54,525,301 | +22,938,388 | 5,756 | 108 |
| 2 | XC | Ajaib | RITEL | 11,408,506 | 5,981,702 | +5,426,804 | 6,161 | 108 |
| 3 | MG | Semesta Indovest | LOKAL | 60,148,422 | 56,103,716 | +4,044,706 | 5,571 | 108 |
| 4 | SQ | BCA Sekuritas | LOKAL | 7,689,796 | 5,765,279 | +1,924,517 | 5,299 | 107 |
| 5 | CC | Mandiri | PEM | 12,742,219 | 10,978,701 | +1,763,518 | 5,659 | 104 |
| 6 | BQ | Korea Investment | ASING | 2,213,569 | 1,529,841 | +683,728 | 5,814 | 105 |
| 7 | KK | Phillip | ASING | 3,036,160 | 2,775,367 | +260,793 | 5,382 | 105 |
Top Net Sellers (6 Bulan)
| # | Code | Nama | Tipe | Net 6M | Avg Sell | Buy% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | Sucor Sekuritas | LOKAL | -3,456,754 | — | 28.7% |
| 2 | DR | RHB Sekuritas | ASING | -3,217,903 | — | 21.7% |
| 3 | GR | Panin Sekuritas | LOKAL | -2,918,402 | — | 39.9% |
| 4 | YP | Mirae Asset | RITEL | -2,578,554 | — | 46.2% |
| 5 | EP | MNC Sekuritas | LOKAL | -2,164,944 | — | 25.9% |
| 6 | BR | Trust Sekuritas | LOKAL | -2,018,890 | — | 3.4% |
| 7 | OD | BRI Danareksa | PEM | -1,196,468 | — | 43.9% |
6-Month Insight:
- 📈 RITEL dominasi akumulasi 6 bulan — XL (Stockbit) +22.9M lot, XC (Ajaib) +5.4M lot
- 📉 Distributor utama 6 bulan: AZ (Sucor) -3.5M, DR (RHB) -3.2M, GR (Panin) -2.9M
- ● RHB (ASING) massive sell -3.2M lot dalam 6 bulan = foreign exiting
- ⚠️ OD (BRI Danareksa, PEM) net -1.2M dalam 6 bulan tapi net +168K dalam 30 hari = flipping! Dari seller jadi buyer bulan terakhir.
📎 Sumber: Data broker flow internal
11. Berita & Konteks Fundamental
1. Right Issue JGLE Rp 414 Miliar (Maret 2026)
- Anak usaha ELTY, PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk (JGLE), melakukan right issue senilai Rp 414 miliar
- Tujuan: membeli 62% saham PT Jungleland Asia (JLA) — setelah transaksi, JGLE akan memiliki 100% JLA
- JLA saat ini debt free (tanpa utang)
- 📎 StockWatch — Bakrieland Siapkan Right Issue JGLE
2. Kinerja Keuangan 2025 Membaik
- Pendapatan naik +16% YoY
- Rugi bersih susut 58.7% dari Rp 101.95M (2024) → Rp 42.08M (2025)
- Rugi bersih yang diatribusikan ke pemilik induk: Rp 16.70M (2025) — jauh lebih baik
- Pendapatan 9 bulan pertama 2025: Rp 1.07T (+18% YoY)
- 📎 StockWatch — Pendapatan ELTY Naik 16%
3. Proyek Baru di Sentul
- ELTY mengembangkan proyek properti baru di Sentul sebagai bagian dari ekspansi 2026
- Fokus: pengembangan kawasan terpadu
- 📎 Neraca.co.id — Right Issue Anak Usaha Bakrieland
4. Komentar Investor (Instagram)
- Ada keluhan investor tentang pembatalan RUPS yang mepet waktu
- Sentimen retail negatif terhadap tata kelola perusahaan
- 📎 Instagram — JGLE Right Issue Discussion
Financial Summary
- EPS (TTM): -0.38 (masih rugi)
- PE Ratio: N/A (negative earnings)
- Beta: 0.38 (low beta, tidak terlalu volatile vs market)
- Market Cap: ~Rp 1.74T
- Shares Outstanding: ~69.6B shares (dari market cap / price)
📎 Sumber: Yahoo Finance, StockWatch, Neraca.co.id
12. Koneksi Konglomerasi
ELTY adalah bagian dari BAKRIE GROUP.
Ticker Bakrie Group lainnya:
- BNBR — Bakrie & Brothers (holding)
- BUMI — Bumi Resources (batu bara)
- ENRG — Energi Mega Persada (oil & gas)
- VIVA — Visi Media Asia (media)
- DEWA — Darma Henwa (mining services)
- BRMS — Bumi Resources Minerals (mining)
- VKTR — VKTR Teknologi Mobilitas (EV)
Broker yang main di ELTY + Bakrie stocks:
- RX (Macquarie) — foreign SM di Bakrie stocks (100% buy pattern)
- OD (BRI Danareksa) — PEM, main di banyak Bakrie + Prajogo stocks
- MG (Semesta Indovest) — LOKAL, dominan di ELTY (net +4M 6 bulan)
Koneksi Politik: Bakrie Group dekat dengan Golkar dan politikus senior. Aburizal Bakrie adalah mantan Ketua Umum Golkar. Koneksi ini bisa jadi catalyst atau risk tergantung dinamika politik.
📎 Sumber: IDX.co.id, data broker flow internal
13. Key Finding
- Smart Money (ASING+PEM) net sell -82K lot dalam 30 hari — distribusi masih berlangsung dari tangan kuat ke ritel
- 6 broker FLIP SELLER→BUYER di 5 Juni — termasuk OD (BRI Danareksa, PEM) dan MG (Semesta Indovest, bandar). Ini sinyal reversal POTENSIAL tapi belum terkonfirmasi.
- Harga turun -76.9% dari peak Rp 108 — sudah di zona kapitulasi. Volume spike 2.85M di 5 Jun saat harga jatuh ke 25 = forced selling atau capitulation volume.
- Fundamental membaik — rugi bersih susut 58.7%, pendapatan +16%. Tapi masih rugi (EPS negatif).
- Catalyst: Right Issue JGLE Rp 414M untuk akuisisi Jungleland Asia (debt free). Ini bisa unlock value tapi juga dilutive.
14. Verdict
📊 Klasifikasi: WAIT & WATCH — Early Reversal Signal, Belum Konfirmasi
| Sinyal | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Harga vs 52W range | ⚠️ | 30% dari low, sudah turun 77% dari high |
| SM 30-day flow | ● | Net sell -82K = distribusi |
| SM weekly 1 Jun | ✅ | Net buy +667K = reversal signal! |
| 6 broker flip | ✅ | 6 broker SELLER→BUYER di 5 Jun |
| SID proxy | ● | Sellers >> Buyers konsisten |
| Fundamental | ✅ | Membaik, rugi menyusut |
| Tektokan | ⚠️ | MG tektok 43%, perlu filter |
| Foreign flow | ⚠️ | Tidak konsisten, bolak-balik |
🐂 Bull Case
- SM reversal terkonfirmasi 1-2 minggu lagi → harga bounce ke 35-40
- Right Issue JGLE sukses → unlock value Jungleland Asia
- Fundamental terus membaik → market cap re-rate
- Target: Rp 40-50 (60-100% upside dari Rp 25)
📊 Base Case
- SM flip hanya temporary → harga sideways di 20-30
- Right Issue dilutive → harga tertekan jangka pendek
- Fundamental perlahan membaik tapi belum profit
- Target: Rp 25-35 (0-40% upside)
🐻 Bear Case
- SM flip palsu (crossing/block trade) → distribusi lanjutan
- Harga break below Rp 20 → target Rp 9-15 (52W low area)
- Rugi berlanjut + right issue gagal → kapitulasi total
- Target: Rp 10-15 (-40% hingga -60%)
💡 Strategi
- JANGAN masuk sekarang — tunggu konfirmasi SM buy konsisten 3-5 hari berturut
- Watch level Rp 20 — kalau break below, cut loss / jangan masuk
- Entry zone: Rp 22-25 kalau ada konfirmasi:
- SM net buy 3+ hari berturut
- Volume turun + harga stabil (barang kering)
- SID: net buyers > sellers untuk pertama kalinya
- Target jual: Rp 35-40 (50-60% upside, resistance di area Mei)
- Stoploss: Rp 18 (below this = new downtrend)
15. Sumber Data
- StockWatch — Bakrieland Siapkan Right Issue JGLE Rp414M
- StockWatch — Pendapatan ELTY Naik 16%, Rugi Susut 58.7%
- Neraca.co.id — Right Issue Anak Usaha Bakrieland
- IDX.co.id — Profil ELTY
- Yahoo Finance — ELTY.JK
- Investing.com — ELTY
- Landbank.co.id — Penjualan Rumah Bakrieland Menggeliat
- Data broker flow internal
Research oleh Supri Spinach | 6 Juni 2026