FTSE Russell — Research Update per 19 Juni 2026
Sumber: FTSE Russell (LSEG), Investing.com, MarketScreener, Trading Economics Disusun: 19 Juni 2026
TL;DR
- Indonesia tetap Secondary Emerging Market, TIDAK masuk Watch List. Tapi review indeks Maret & Juni 2026 ditunda sebagian karena reformasi pasar modal OJK/IDX (free float ga jelas).
- Nigeria balik ke Frontier, efektif 21 September 2026 — FX queue udah clear.
- Vietnam naik ke Secondary Emerging, efektif 21 September 2026 — multi-tranche sampai 2027.
- Greece naik ke Developed, efektif 21 September 2026.
- FTSE 100 di 10,399 (-1% kemarin), YTD +4.72%, ATH 10,934 di Februari 2026. UBS proyeksi bisa 11,000 akhir tahun.
- Next big event: FTSE Annual Country Classification Review — 6 Oktober 2026.
1. FTSE Country Classification — March 2026 Interim Review
📎 Sumber: FTSE Russell — March 2026 Interim Announcement (7 April 2026) | PDF Lengkap
Watch List (per Maret 2026)
Hanya 1 negara di Watch List:
- Mesir — possible demotion: Secondary Emerging → Frontier
- Tinggal 1 saham eligible di FTSE Emerging Index per akhir 2024 (minimum 2)
- Reformasi ekonomi + inisiatif Egyptian Exchange mulai menaikkan likuiditas → 1 saham baru masuk eligibility Maret 2026
- Nasib ditentukan setelah 30 Juni 2026 (cek ulang minimum securities count + investable market cap)
Reklasifikasi Dikonfirmasi
| Negara | Dari | Ke | Efektif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | Unclassified | Frontier | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Vietnam | Frontier | Secondary Emerging | 21 Sep 2026 (multi-tranche s/d 2027) |
| Greece | Advanced Emerging | Developed | 21 Sep 2026 |
Nigeria: Di-unclassified sejak Sep 2023 karena repatriasi modal macet. Sekarang FX queue udah clear, investor institusi asing udah bisa tarik modal tanpa delay material.
Vietnam: Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC resmi membentuk Global Broker model + non-prefunding framework. Broker global dan lokal tinggal finalisasi perjanjian bilateral. FTSE "satisfied" dengan progress. Implementasi multi-tranche untuk akomodasi kapasitas pasar lokal.
Pasar dalam Pemantauan (Tanpa Watch List)
Indonesia — Secondary Emerging (TIDAK BERUBAH):
FTSE Russell continues to closely monitor capital market integrity reforms in Indonesia... FTSE Russell is not considering Indonesia for inclusion on the Watch List.
Inisiatif reformasi yang dicatat FTSE:
- Enhanced shareholder disclosure (data kepemilikan di atas 1%)
- Expanded investor classification categories
- Minimum free float requirements
- High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) list
- Enhanced market surveillance tools
Korea Selatan — Developed (TIDAK BERUBAH):
- Short-selling ban dicabut Maret 2025, tapi "Short sales permitted" masih rated "Restricted"
- Masalah pre-funding settlement saat index rebalance — broker harus commit capital berkali-kali
- Investment Alert/Risk list masih jadi beban operasional, terutama buat mid-cap
Oman — Frontier:
- Memenuhi 9 kriteria Secondary Emerging, tapi kurang jumlah saham (perlu 3 Large/Mid + 5 total, sekarang 2 Mid + 3 Small)
- Akan direview lagi September 2026
Klasifikasi Lengkap (per 7 April 2026)
| Developed | Advanced Emerging | Secondary Emerging | Frontier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Brazil | Chile | Bahrain |
| Austria | Czech Republic | China | Bangladesh |
| Belgium/Lux | Greece* | Colombia | Botswana |
| Canada | Hungary | Egypt | Bulgaria |
| Denmark | Malaysia | Iceland | Côte d'Ivoire |
| Finland | Mexico | India | Croatia |
| France | South Africa | Indonesia | Cyprus |
| Germany | Taiwan | Kuwait | Estonia |
| Hong Kong | Thailand | Philippines | Ghana |
| Ireland | Turkiye | Qatar | Jordan |
| Israel | Romania | Kazakhstan | |
| Italy | Saudi Arabia | Kenya | |
| Japan | UAE | Latvia | |
| Netherlands | Lithuania | ||
| New Zealand | Malta | ||
| Norway | Mauritius | ||
| Poland | Mongolia | ||
| Portugal | Morocco | ||
| Singapore | Nigeria (Sep 2026) | ||
| South Korea | Oman | ||
| Spain | Pakistan | ||
| Sweden | Palestine | ||
| Switzerland | Peru | ||
| UK | North Macedonia | ||
| USA | Serbia | ||
| Slovakia | |||
| Slovenia | |||
| Sri Lanka | |||
| Tanzania | |||
| Tunisia | |||
| Vietnam (Sep 2026) |
* Greece naik ke Developed per 21 Sep 2026
2. Indonesia & FTSE — Kronologi & Status Terkini
📎 Sumber: FTSE Russell FAQ — Treatment of Indonesian Securities v1.3 (Juni 2026) | Indonesia Index Notice — June 2026 Review (13 Mei 2026)
Timeline
- 29 Jan 2026 — OJK umumkan komitmen peningkatan integritas & transparansi pasar modal
- 5 Feb 2026 — IDX rilis rencana reformasi
- 9 Feb 2026 — FTSE PAUSE semua index changes untuk saham Indonesia (kecuali corporate actions tertentu)
- Maret 2026 — Index review Maret untuk Indonesia ditunda total
- April 2026 — OJK/IDX implementasi: shareholder data >1%, HSC list, investor classification enhancement
- 7 April 2026 — FTSE konfirmasi Indonesia tetap Secondary Emerging, tidak masuk Watch List
- 13 Mei 2026 — FTSE umumkan treatment Juni 2026: review parsial
- Juni 2026 — Review berjalan terbatas, full resumption ditargetkan September 2026
Apa yang DILAKUKAN di Juni 2026
- ICB (Industry Classification Benchmark) updates
- Quarterly share updates (tanpa buffer 1%)
- Quarterly free float decreases only (tanpa buffer 3%)
- Large/mid/small/micro-cap changes dari spin-offs (deletion kalau di bawah exit threshold)
- Exclusion lists tetap jalan (ESG, Shariah, dll)
- Untuk indeks dengan annual/semi-annual review Juni: deletion dari FTSE4Good, Blossom, Environmental Markets indices tetap applied
Apa yang MASIH DITUNDA di Juni 2026
- Additions (termasuk IPO) ke indeks
- Quarterly free float increases
- Full index re-ranking (peringkat ulang saham berdasarkan market cap)
Alasan FTSE Menunda
Mengutip langsung FAQ:
"...the accurate determination of free float percentages is currently uncertain, and implementing index changes at this stage may lead to adverse turnover for index users."
Penundaan sesuai Section 2.4 — Exceptional Market Disruption dari Index Policy FTSE Russell.
Outlook September 2026
"FTSE Russell will continue to monitor market developments in Indonesia closely and remains engaged with local market authorities. Further decisions on index treatment, including potential resumption of full index re-ranking, will be considered in advance of the September 2026 index review and communicated in due course."
3. FTSE 100 — Kinerja & Update Terkini
📎 Sumber: MarketScreener — FTSE 100 | Investing.com — UK 100 | Trading Economics — GB100 | London Insider — UBS Forecast (17 Jun 2026)
Snapshot (18 Juni 2026)
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Level | 10,399.70 |
| Day Change | -1.04% (-108.91 pts) |
| Open | 10,510.16 |
| Day Range | 10,376.59 — 10,510.16 |
| 52-Week Range | 8,707.65 — 10,934.94 (ATH) |
| YTD 2026 | +4.72% |
| 1-Year Return | +18.29% |
| Volume | 966.47M |
Makro UK Terkait
| Indikator | Nilai | Periode |
|---|---|---|
| BoE Interest Rate | 3.75% (hold, 7-2 vote) | Jun 2026 |
| UK Inflation (CPI) | 2.80% (stabil) | May 2026 |
| UK Unemployment | 4.9% (↓ dari 5.0%) | Apr 2026 |
| UK Wage Growth | Kuat, di atas ekspektasi | Apr 2026 |
Sentimen Pasar (18 Juni 2026)
- Negatif: BoE hold 3.75%, 2 anggota MPC voting untuk +25bps hike. Fed juga hold tapi 9 dari 19 policymakers anticipate minimal 1 rate hike tahun ini.
- Miners & energy tertekan: Shell -2.41%, BP -2.92%, Rio Tinto -3.0%, Anglo American -3.2%, Glencore -2.4%, Fresnillo -5.83%
- Tesco -1.5%: Q1 sales growth 1.8% vs ekspektasi 2.7% — cuaca buruk dituding sebagai penyebab
- Ex-dividend drag: Persimmon -6.17%, Land Securities, 3i Group
- Positif: US-Iran peace deal meredakan ketegangan geopolitik (tapi malah bikin oil drop)
Top Gainers (18 Jun)
- Polar Capital Tech +2.66%
- Informa +2.45%
- IAG +2.30%
- JD Sports +2.22%
- Halma +2.17%
Top Losers (18 Jun)
- LSEG -7.00%
- Persimmon -6.17%
- Fresnillo -5.83%
- Endeavour Mining -5.73%
- Relx -3.97%
Proyeksi
UBS (17 Juni 2026):
- Skenario bullish: FTSE 100 ke 11,000 (+19%) akhir 2026 — jika komoditas & bonds mendukung
- Skenario bearish: bisa slump 26% — tergantung pergerakan komoditas & yields
- Key variable: commodity prices + bond yields
Trading Economics forecast:
- Q2 2026: 10,435
- 12-month forward: 9,730 (bearish)
Convex Trade:
- Full year 2026 forecast tersedia, detail di Convex Trade
4. Implikasi buat Indonesia
Positif
- Indonesia tidak masuk Watch List — tidak ada risiko downgrade ke Frontier dalam waktu dekat
- Reformasi OJK/IDX diakui FTSE sebagai langkah positif — enhanced shareholder disclosure, HSC list, investor classification
- Juni 2026 review berjalan parsial (bukan full freeze seperti Maret) — sinyal progres
- Target September 2026 untuk full resumption — kalau reformasi berjalan lancar
Risiko
- Ketidakpastian free float masih jadi concern utama FTSE — ini basis perhitungan bobot saham di indeks global
- Kalau September 2026 masih ditunda lagi, ini bisa jadi red flag untuk investor institusi asing
- Reformasi pasar modal Indonesia masih dalam pengawasan ketat — belum "lulus" dari FTSE
- Jangan lengah: dulu Nigeria dari Frontier ke Unclassified cuma karena repatriasi modal tersendat; Pakistan dari Secondary Emerging ke Frontier karena market cap turun
Next Key Dates
- 30 Juni 2026 — Cutoff data Mesir (Watch List reassessment)
- September 2026 — Review indeks Indonesia (potensi full resumption)
- 21 September 2026 — Efektif: Nigeria ke Frontier, Vietnam ke Secondary Emerging, Greece ke Developed
- 6 Oktober 2026 — FTSE Annual Country Classification Announcement (INI PENTING — next Watch List update)
5. Glossary
| Istilah | Penjelasan |
|---|---|
| Developed | Pasar maju (US, UK, Jepang, dll) — 25 negara |
| Advanced Emerging | Emerging kelas atas (Brazil, Taiwan, South Africa, dll) — 10 negara |
| Secondary Emerging | Emerging kelas dua — Indonesia di sini bareng India, China, dll — 12 negara |
| Frontier | Pasar perbatasan (Vietnam, Nigeria, Kenya, dll) — 28 negara |
| Watch List | Daftar negara yang sedang dipertimbangkan untuk reklasifikasi naik/turun |
| Free Float | Persentase saham yang benar-benar bisa diperdagangkan publik (non-strategis, non-pengendali) |
| GEIS | FTSE Global Equity Index Series — indeks acuan global FTSE |
| ICB | Industry Classification Benchmark — sistem klasifikasi industri FTSE |
| HSC List | High Shareholding Concentration — daftar saham dengan konsentrasi kepemilikan tinggi (baru di Indonesia) |
Research compiled 19 Juni 2026 dari data FTSE Russell official documents, LSEG press releases, Investing.com, MarketScreener, dan Trading Economics.